Dear valued customers and vendors, welcome to the Market Insights-Newsletter from Quiksol that delivers timely and relevant market intelligence reports about the electronics supply chain industry. We hope you could find this Market Insights valuable, and we’d love to get your feedback at Quiksol@quiksol.com.cn
Brands: Micron, Samsung, Hynix, Nanya, Kioxia, MXIC, Winbond, CPU, HDD
Memory spot market update
Overview: Approaching the end of December 2022, the memory market is still flat and not improving. Most of the factories are holding a bearish forecast and no intention of stocking up with any goods. Overall demand has been weak this year, with weak economic conditions and high inflation slowing demand for consumer electronics. In consumer products such as PCs, the price of memory chips has fallen sharply, which has also had a greater impact on the performance of Samsung, Hynix, and Micron. In the past November, major brands have cut prices and promotions, experienced a wave of fierce competition, in order to accelerate the consumption of storage inventory, but also for the end of the year of the performance of the final sprint. However, since December, prices have seemed relatively flat and manufacturers no longer tends to reduced prices. This month prices should fluctuate within a limited range. Under this dilemma, memory manufacturers always maintain a positive attitude towards advanced technology. They are doing active efforts to maintain market leadership, and meet the market demand for high capacity, high performance products, showing the potential for sustainable development. The winter of memory market has been continuing this year, and prices have fallen to very low levels. The biggest concern in the industry is, when will they bottom out and rebound? The recovery in consumer demand is widely seen as the key factor, so let's all look forward to the spring of 2023 memory.
Another concern is China announced a drastic relaxation of COVID regulations recently which has lasted for three years. The exchange rate of the RMB has also rebounded, which we believe will lead to better expectations for the economy activity. It is expected that due to external factors, the demand for servers will gradually improve until the first half of 2023, the demand for mobile devices may remain weak, and the demand for personal computers and PCs may recover significantly in the second half of the year, and the customer inventory level is expected to improve in early 2023. In addition, the demand for memory in the automotives industry is increasing, and in the post-mobile computing era, automotive storage will become an important emerging growth point in memory chips and determine the market pattern. DRAM, Flash and NAND will be widely used in various fields of intelligent vehicles in the future. In the next few years, more attention can be paid to automobile new energy related industries.
DDR4: Looking back at the memory market this year, DRAM was the biggest decline this year, with DDR4 8Gb falling the most. Compared with the lowest price in 2019, the price is again more than 30% lower this year. Demand has been weak since the end of December. In the current situation of oversupply, so that the price continues to fall. Spot vendors are still facing the problem of selling pressure and the transaction is very unsatisfactory. The market price for SAMSUNG DDR4 8Gb fell to around US$1.95, and for DDR4 4Gb fell to around US$1.30. As the market price continues to fall, no one is willing to stock goods in the recent period, no matter the upstream channel or the market spot trader resulting shortage of spot goods in current market. If there is a large quantity of demand for goods, there may be a shortage phenomenon. The price of Hynix DDR4 8Gb is relatively stable, without large fluctuations. The price of 16Gb is in a state of slow decline, the overall demand is less and a weak market. Micron, DDR4 prices are in a stable state, 8Gb commercial grade market price around US$2.20, still at the lowest point in history. It is reported that some upstream channels have sold off most of their inventory at low prices, and the remaining inventory is limited. MT40A512M16LY-062E IT:E, this Micron DDR4 4Gb, our company has a good channel, because the price tends to be stable, customers with demand can properly prepare some safety inventory.
DDR3: Compared with DDR4 products, DDR3 prices have fallen less than DDR4 products this year as original manufacturers have reduced production. DDR3 with 4Gb fell the most in this year, the market price of 4Gb in November has been lower than the 2019 low price. The current market price of SAMSUNG DDR3 4Gb is around US$1.30, and the current market price of DDR3 2Gb is around US$1.15. Hynix DDR3 prices are relatively stable, inventory levels are low, and demand is low. The current market price of NANYA DDR3 4Gb is around US$1.29, and the current market price of DDR3 2Gb is around US$1.18. The price is falling slowly and the inventory is low. As for Micron, customer TP continues to be low, the price is relatively stable, and there will be no significant price reduction. Customers who have needs can talk about it in detail. Due to the recent low inventory levels in the market, manufacturers are no longer cutting prices this month, leading to what appears to be a shortage this month. At present, customers are also waiting to see the new price adjustment moves of manufacturers in 2023.
Nand Flash: KIOXIA, due to the decrease in the output of various products, the price at the end of the year tends to be stable, but the demand is still not much. Manufacturer will take their own inventory at the end of the year to determine whether they need to clear at a low price. Our company has a better channel and can discuss if there is any demand to inquire. Micron, according to the news, due to the decrease of the cost of Nand wafer, the price of Nand products decreased accordingly. The market price of 1Gb was around US$0.90, and the market price of 2Gb was around US$1.25. Overall, there was less demand, welcome customers to inquire, we can reduce costs for you.
Nor Flash: Cypress, due to the merger with Infineon's system, many orders that originally had a delivery date suddenly bounced. Some spot prices in the market have been speculated to a very high level, which has also led to some terminals facing the situation of line suspension because cannot afford the high price. Therefore, orders with delivery dates need to be confirmed more carefully. The price of WINBOND and MXIC is relatively stable, and the inventory is still sufficient. Our company has stock W25Q16JVSNIQ and W25Q256JVFIM, the price is very good. Welcome to talk about it in detail. Micron, the client feedback supply has been greatly improved, the factory-side customer inquiries are concentrated on the discontinued small capacity Nor flash, and the market price is generally relatively high. The market price of N25Q064A13ESED0F is above US$3.00. Our company has stock, the price is good with new date code, and the quotation is US$2.00. Customers who have demand can bring TP for further discussion. In addition, there is an automotive grade Nor flash that our company wants to clear. The MPN is MT25QL128ABB8E12-0AUT, welcome to inquire.
EMMC: There are many inquiries in the market of EMMC this month, and the supply quantity of Samsung is limited this month, so it will no longer reduce the price. Spot traders due to the previous low stock, resulting in the market recently presented a shortage of inventory. The market spot is less, and the prices tends to stabilize and rise slightly this month. The price of the SAMSUNG EMMC 8GB is currently fluctuating around US$1.77, the market price of the EMMC 16GB has risen slightly to around US$2.77 this month, and the market price of the EMMC 32GB is currently around US$3.50. There is a lot of demand for inquiry in the market this month that the manufacturers are no longer willing to reduce their prices. It is suggested that some safety stocks be prepared at the appropriate time before the year. In terms of KIOXIA, EMMC has not seen much demand recently and the price continues to be stable. As for Micron, the demand is not strong, and the supplier wants to clear some EMMC. Customers who have needs are welcome to inquire.
Module: Module market prices have also stabilized recently. Due to the deep decline in the past few days, prices are now at very low levels, well below the 2019 lows. Recently, the price decline of DDR5 has gradually expanded, and the decline seems to have been greater than that of DDR4 memory modules. As DDR5 penetration continues to increase, and with higher rate performance, the penetration rate will gradually increase in the future. SAMSUNG PC 8GB price has been lower than US$20, and 16GB has been lower than US$40. The server module 16GB price has been lower than US$50, and 32 GB has been lower than US$150. With channel and client inventories still high, prices are likely to continue to fall. Hynix module prices have also fallen to low levels, client and channel inventories are at high levels, and market demand is weak. As for Micron, we have recently completed some transactions of DDR4 server modules with good supply channels. Customers who have demands are welcome to contact us.
SSD: SSD demand continues to shrink, the recent emergence of enterprise-class SSD selling pressure, the overall buying is very low. Only some sporadic factories urgent order inquiry, the bargaining space is limited. Customer target price is very difficult to meet, the overall trend is slightly declined. Data center construction has slowed down and demand has delayed because of rising energy prices and a slowing economy. It is expected that SSD contract prices will continue to fall, and it is suggested that it is safer to focus on case for case recently.
Average market price details are listed in the following table.
Pls take as a reference of below 4 tables:
Table1-Dram spot price
Table2-NAND Flash spot price
Table3-Memory module spot price
Table4-SSD spot price
Looking back Year 2022, Intel overall demand was the poorest. the desktop and server market have been in a downturn, with supply exceeding demand, which has led to a continuous dropping of the price. In addition, the COVID-19 keeps repeating, and many projects of customers are delayed or cancelled. Consumer and server market is relatively down, although Intel has made several times for raising up the official price, the market is still in the doldrums, customers’ target price was close to the history lowest price.
IOTG: The IOTG product Ethernet Controller which became a hot part in the past 1year, has finally been put on hold recently. The goods from Intel manufactory have come out one after another, the big OEM customers and FDs also have got the goods ordered before. At present, the shortage of mainstream items has been basically alleviated, but there are still some items out of stock. For the I210 series, recently the demand has weakened significantly, the supply has stabilized, and the target price of the customer has gradually approached the original price, reducing the gap. Some other conventional materials also arrived; the price fell significantly.
PC CPU: The overall market demand is relatively weak. The PC CPU is in a loss state when shipping to customer. Whether it is popular CPUs or some old CPUs, the delivery time is relatively stable, and the price is falling all the way. The demand of old CPU as i3-6100, i3-8100, i3-9100, i3-9500, the demand was dropped, and the price also fell down. We can see some demand of i9-9900, i9-9900K,i9-10980XE, but the stocks was little and OEM can’t get stocks from INTEL. For the Celeron series and Pentium series low end CPU, G3900,J1800, J1900, N4200 parts, the demand was also very weak, the price dropping to the bottom.
Server CPU: In general, the supply of the server market is relatively stable. The mainstream models 4210, 4210R, 4240, 4310 are relatively stable at present, and the prices have dropped slightly and gradually stabilized. Recently also can see more stock of ice lake series item, the demand is not too much. Several popular models are still out of stock such as D-1527, E2176G, etc. XEON-D series CPUs have always been out of stock. Some uncommon items of the XEON series also lack of stocks, the lead time from Intel would be very long.
Mobile CPU: The supply of the 11th generation CPU trends to be stable, many source have stocks. For the mobile CPU Tiger Lake series, we can see much more stocks come out, but the demand is very weak, so leads to many excess want to sell from OEM side. However, the supply of some old notebook CPUs is tight, and the original factory does not accept new orders, which in turn causes some IPC customers to keep looking for goods outside, mainly focusing on the 6th, 7th, and 8th generations. For example as I3-6100U, I5-7200U, i5-8250U, i5-8350U, i7-8550U, we can share some stocks from our reliable source, if you have any demand please let us know, thanks.
H D D
1. There is only one last month left in 2022, in recent years, HDD market has encountered the impact of SSD, in addition to the unit capacity price has a little advantage, performance, volume, energy consumption and other aspects have fallen completely.This year coupled with the decline in market demand, supply chain shocks and other negative factors, HDD sales have fallen sharply.
2. From the perspective of the supply side, enterprise-grade HDD remained relatively stable, with demand slightly lower than in the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of this year, global HDD hard disk sales will continue to decline, and it is expected to be only about 35 million. Western Digital has begun to cut production due to falling market demand, expected to last for 6-8 weeks.
3. Although the recent enterprise HDD, monitoring HDD, mobile HDD have been shipped, but the most shipment of HDD is still concentrated in the large-capacity enterprise level, especially 12TB, 16TB & 18TB. The price is relatively stable. The shipping price of 16TB is about US$255, and the shipping price of 18TB is about US$285. There are also more shipments of other capacities below 10TB, such as 4TB, 6TB, and 8TB are being shipped one after another. Colleagues in need can discuss in detail.
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